Day Weather Forecaster
Probability of rain : Paulos’s weather forecaster?
There’s a familiar gaffe committed by a forecaster who tells us that there is a 50% chance of rain on Saturday, a 50% chance of rain on Sunday, and therefore a 100% chance of rain over the weekend.
Assuming the events are independent, entirely prone to error I’d say the probability of rain over the weekend – i.e. on one day or the other but not both – is 50%. If we switched the problem to the probability of rain on both days, would I be right in assuming a probability of 1/2 X 1/2 = 1/4 ?
I know this will be awfully simple math. for many of you. But some of us still illustrate Paulos’ claim that innumeracy abounds !
Yes, IF the two events are independent, then the probability of rain on BOTH days is (1/2) * (1/2) = 1/4.
The probability of “rain on the weekend” would be the probability that it rains on both days, PLUS the probability that it rains on Saturday only, PLUS the probability that it rains on Sunday only: (1/2)(1/2) + (1/2)(1/2) + (1/2)(1/2) = 3/4.
Another way to calculate this is to take 1 minus the probability that it DOESN’T rain on the weekend. There’s a 50% chance of no rain on Saturday and a 50% chance of no rain on Sunday, so we have 1 – (1/2)(1/2) = 3/4.
He may have worded this poorly, and meant to say that there will definitely be rain on the weekend, but that it has an equal chance of being on Sunday or Saturday.
CNN 5 Day Weather Forecast
|
|
La Crosse Technology Weather Direct WD-3308U-WAL 4 Day Internet Powered Wireless Forecaster $32.00 THE ENEMY WIND is one of The Weather Channel’s most popular documentaries. It deals with tornadoes, their behavior and how they are generated. As it explores our historical relationship with tornadoes, THE ENEMY WIND discusses recent research into improving our ability to forecast storms and shows the work of a group of nerveless adventurers, the tornado chasers. This video explains how researcher… |
|
|
Bushnell 7-Day Weather FX Alarm (Silver) $95.00 7-day weather forecast & weather alerts for up to 150 cities from AccuWeather(R) No installation required Color-changing background Displays wind speed & direction, air quality & indoor temperature Features clock with alarm AC or battery powered… |
|
|
Bushnell 7-Day Hunt Fxi Internet Weather Forecaster (Green) $70.95 BUSHNELL 7 DAY HUNT WEATHER FXI INTERNET WEATHER FORCASTER… |
|
|
LaCrosse Technology 4-Day Talking Internet Powered Wireless Forecaster with Bonus Display, Model# WAP1 LaCrosse talking weather forecaster uses the internet to deliver FREE accurate audio forecasts for over 60,000 locations in the U.S. and Canada, via Weather Direct . Listen to your specific forecast, plus your choice of news headlines, sports, entertainment and more. No subscriptions required! Create a custom greeting to personalize the forecast. 4-day display with audio shows daily high/low tempe… |
|
|
Talking Wireless 4 Day Weather Forecaster Its a weather station with a voice… “Good morning John (Put Your Own Message Here), heres the forecast for Madison, Wednesday, July 15th… Create your own custom message and it will say it before the forecast…”Wake Up! Todays the Big Game Day!” or “Good Morning (Your Name Here)”. The audio forecast button plays the current forecast and the A/B/C speaker buttons play information that you selec… |
|
|
Ambient 7 Day Weather Forecaster (AMB WF7D01) $129.99 The 7-Day Forecaster features a color-changing backlight, textual summaries of the daily forecast, windspeed, wind direction, today’s forecasted UV index, high pollen count and more. The backlight changes color throughout the day to reflect the current temperature. Plus it features pollen and air quality alerts. It continuously displays forecast data from AccuWeather.com for 150 U.S. locations wit… |
|
|
La Crosse Technology 3-day Wireless Network Talking Weather Station/Forecaster $69.99 The next generation in weather stations! This model is internet powered and gives you the forecast by voice – it even calls you by name! Enjoy free forecasts, headlines, sports and entertainment around the clock without turning on a TV or computer! This La Crosse Technologies weather station features Weather Direct technology that gives you access to the same weather information meteorologists rec… |
|
|
Bushnell 950005 WeatherFX 5 Day Weather Forecaster $34.59 WeatherFX5-Day ForecasterA breakthrough in accurate weather forecast information. This easy-to-use 5-day weather forecast device works without sensors so it is portable. Featuring reliable, real-time weather forecasts for over 150 cities provided by the most accurate weather service, AccuWeather. Color-changing backlight indicates temperatures at a glance. 25-character alert messages including sev… |
|
|
Bushnell 950003 WeatherFX 3 Day Weather Forecaster $18.95 BUSHNELL 95 0003 WEATHERFX 3-DAY WEATHER FORECASTERREAL-TIME 3-DAY ACCUWEATHER FORECASTS FOR 150 CITIES; NETWORK SYNCHRONIZED CLOCK; NO SUBSCRIPTION OR INSTALLATION REQUIRED; REQUIRES 3 AAA BATTERIES; ;… |
|
|
Brookstone Weathercast Wireless 5-day Forecaster $59.99 Displays current temperature plus forecasted highs and lows. Built in, self setting clock connects wrelessly to the AccuWeather.com network to provide amazingly accurate tiem…. |
|
|
Weather FXI 7 Day Weather Forecaster $68.8 Bushnell Weather FXI 7 Day Weather Forecaster |
|
|
Complete Weather Forecaster $41.96 The Honeywell TE653ELW Weather Forecaster with Atomic Clock, Temperature and Humidity melds a stylish appearance with valuable weather and time information! This TE653ELW includes an atomic clock that never requires resetting. The time updates automatically each day within the continental U.S. and it even automatically adjusts for Daylight Saving Time! The Honeywell weather forecaster features a 24-hour barometric pressure history chart with large graphical weather forecasting icons (sunny, cloudy, rainy, etc.) It also monitors temperature and humidity in up to three remote locations. Other features of this attractive Honeywell weather forecaster include moon phase display; a programmable ice warning alarm for Channel 1; comfort level indicators and minimum/maximum memory for temperature and humidity. It also offers user-selectable Fahrenheit or Celsius formats. The Honeywell TE653ELW includes one remote TS33C wireless temperature sensor that can be utilized up to three remote sensors. The sensors have an effective unobstructed transmission range of approximately 100 feet. |
|
|
Bushnell Golf Weather FXi Wireless Forecaster $155.95 “Bushnell 7-Day Golf Weather FXi Wireless Forecaster Introducing the new Internet based 7-Day Golf Weather FXi Wireless Forecaster by Bushnell. Designed and engineered with Internet-driven technology, this device provides accurate and reliable weather information for over 16,000 golf course within the United States. No sensors, subscriptions or wires required! Planning your golf day is easy with Bushnell’s new Golf FXi. Features • Current, RealFeel and Forecasted Hi and Lo Temperatures • Morning, afternoon and evening forecasts for today and next 3 days • UV index, chance of precipitation, wind speed and direction • GolfCast rating summarizes today’s weather • Weather message display for up-to-date conditions • Lightening alert • Alarm and snooze • Color-changing backlight – changes with current temp • Store and view up to 5 favorite golf courses • USB transmitter, power adapter, CD software and stand included • AC or battery operated (4 AA’s, not included)” |
|
|
La Crosse Technology Weather Direct Four Day Weather Forecaster $56.66 The La Crosse Technology(r) Weather Direct(tm) four-day weather forecast delivers up-to-date weather information to help you plan your day. It features specific forecasts for each morning, afternoon, evening and night with a scrolling lower LCD section that scrolls wireless outdoor temperature, selected location, sunrise, sunset, and selected location forecast. |
|
|
La Crosse Technology WD-3103U Weather Direct Four Day Weather Forecaster $56.66 The La Crosse Technology(r) Weather Direct(tm) four-day weather forecast delivers up-to-date weather information to help you plan your day. It features specific forecasts for each morning, afternoon, evening and night with a scrolling lower LCD section that scrolls wireless outdoor temperature, selected location, sunrise, sunset, and selected location forecast. |
|
|
Bushnell 950015c Weatherfx(r) 5-day Weather Forecaster $64.95 Bushnell 950015c Weatherfx(r) 5-day Weather Forecaster |
|
|
Bushnell 950017c Weatherfx(r) 7-day Weather Forecaster $99 Bushnell 950017c Weatherfx(r) 7-day Weather Forecaster |
|
|
WeatherFX 5 Day Wireless Forecaster $75.07 Bushnell WeatherFX 5 Day Wireless Forecaster |
|
|
WeatherFX 7 Day Wireless Forecaster $100.97 Bushnell WeatherFX 7 Day Wireless Forecaster |
|
|
Bushnell 95 0005 Weatherfx(r) 5-day Weather Forecaster $34.95 BUSHNELL 95 0005 WeatherFX 5-Day Weather Forecaster |
|
|
Honeywell Long Range Weather Forecaster With Wind Speed TE852W $90.95 Honeywell Long Range Weather Forecaster With Wind Speed TE852W |
|
|
Oregon Scientific Handheld Weather Forecaster $38.8 Know the weather forecast wherever you go! This pocket-sized weather forecaster provides a 12 to 24 hour forecast and local temperature and humidity readings in a compact – handheld design. The forecaster also doubles as a travel alarm clock with a crescendo alarm and snooze function. Displays 12 to 24 hour weather forecast with animated icons Displays temperature and humidity Minimum and maximum temperature and humidity memories Digital clock and calendar with crescendo alarm and snooze function Moon phase indicator Severe weather alert indicator Barometric pressure trend indicator Belt clip rotates to serve as a table stand Illuminated with HiGlo electro-luminescent backlight Operating temperature range: -4. 0F to 144. 0 F (-20. 0C to 60. 0C) Batteries included: 2 CR2032 watch batteries Weight: 3. Average Freight: 7. 55. Box Dimensions: 13×9x5. |
|
|
Oregon Scientific Handheld Weather Forecaster W/ $28.81 - Oregon Scientific handheld weather forcasterwith alarm clock – Pocket-sized weather forecaster provides a 12 to 24 hour forecast and local temperature and humidity readings in a compact, handheld design – Also doubles as a travel alarm clock with a crescendo alarm and snooze function- Displays 12 to 24 hour weather forecast with animated icons- Displays temperature and humidity-Minimum and maximum temperature and humidity memories- Digital clock and calendar with crescendoalarm and snooze function- Moon phase indicator- Severe weather alert indicator- Barometric pressure trend indicator- Belt clip rotates to serve as a table stand- Illuminated with HiGlo electro-luminescent backlight- Operating temperature range: -4. 0 F to 144. 0 F (-20. 0 C to 60. 0 C)- Includes 2 watch batteriesOREB313HGA |
|
|
950015c Weatherfx(r) 5-day Weather Forecaster $77.94 5-day weather forecast & weather alerts for up to 150 cities from AccuWeather(R) Displays indoor temperature, clock & alarm Color changing background No installation required AC or battery powered |
|
|
950017c Weatherfx(r) 7-day Weather Forecaster $99.94 7-day weather forecast & weather alerts for up to 150 cities from AccuWeather(R) No installation required Color-changing background Displays wind speed & direction, air quality & indoor temperature Features clock with alarm AC or battery powered |
|
|
John Deere Long Range Weather Forecaster $29.95 Provides accurate time temperature barometer and weather forecast, Compact size, 6 AA batteries required not included, UL Listed, 5.5Hx2Wx3.5L |
|
|
HONEYWELL TE322ELW Long-Range Weather Forecaster $32.95 Time Automatically sets to the US Atomic clockDay in English, Spanish, French, German or ItalianDual crescendo alarm with snooze Weather Indoor/Outdoor Temperature12 to 24 hour weather forecast (with icons)Programmable ice warning alarmOutdoor temperature range: lithium batteries: -38F to 158F (-38.8C to 70C), alkaline batteries: -4F to 158F (-20C to 70C)Remote channels auto-scanMin/Max memory for in/out temperatureMonitors temperature in up to 3 remote locationsDouble-tool design remote sensor (TS15C) includedMain unit operating range of up to 328 feet (100 meters)New double-tool designEasy-to-read digitsEnhanced blue backlightWall mount or desktop optionBatteries not included: 2 AA (main unit)2 AA (remote sensor) |
|
|
La Crosse Technology 4 Day Talking Internet Powered Wireless Forecaster – Choose Finish $75.54 Get all the weather information you need when you listen to the La Crosse Technology(r) Weather Direct(r) 4-day internet-powered talking WA-1140U weather station. You can create your own message using the I TALK feature that will play before the selected forecast for your location, plus news, headlines, sports, entertainment and more. A scrolling LCD display displays accurate weather information for over 60,000 locations. |
|
|
Weather $8.8 These resource books provide the busy teacher with science lessons that are appropriate and doable. Step-by-step lessons aligned with National Science Education Standards, make science relevant to real life. There are hands-on activities with student record sheets. Weather presents information and investigations on these six concepts: 7 Weather changes from day to day and over the seasons.7 Weather conditions can be described in measurable quantities.7 Water circulates through Earth’s atmosphere.7 Clouds directly affect weather.7 Climate is affected by Earth’s features.7 Local weather conditions can be used to forecast weather. |
|
|
Weather – A Popular Expostion on the Nature of Weather Changes from Day to Day $34.78 Weather – A Popular Expostion on the Nature of Weather Changes from Day to Day |
|
|
Weather Boy: A Story of D-Day $12.64 Weather Boy: A Story of D-Day |
|
|
Forecaster 610 Compass and Thermometer $5.97 Silva Forecaster 610 Compass and Thermometer |
|
|
7 Day SKI FX Weather Alarm $75.07 Bushnell 7 Day SKI FX Weather Alarm |
|
|
5 Day Weather FX W/ Alarm $76.94 BUSHNELL 5 DAY WEATHER FX W/ ALARM |
